Germany was the last holdout on this one. Russia is getting kicked out of SWIFT. How much this affects anything I think depends on how soon it's implemented, and how much cash Russian oligarchs and Putin have hidden around the world in various assets and now need to move/liquidate.

The German ministers announcement indicated they were going to try and do it in such a way as to minimize the collateral damage, but we'll see how well that goes. Russia is obviously hard fucked on this. But the real question is how much its going to affect the rest of the world.

My guess is nobody actually knows because outside of maybe some Swiss bankers, no one really has any clue how much Russian money is hidden and where, or how the rich Russians are going to react to this. I'm leaning towards complete shitshow, but I maybe the bureaucrats in Belgium suddenly got more competent lately. We'll see on Monday. I bought an ATM SQQQ call and an OTM TQQQ call going into the weekend on the theory that two days is a lot of time for market shifting things to happen.

Russia getting booted from SWIFT is definitely going to be market moving.

Of course, there's also the other side of this coin – what is Russia going to do in response? I'm going to lean hard into the idea that Putin will respond, most likely with “the cyber” or something else.

A bunch of pissed off Russian oligarchs looking at Putin and thinking about coups is definitely going to goad something unpleasant into existence.

Anyone have any specific thoughts or ideas on either side of this action – both the SWIFT removal and whatever Russia does in response, feel free to share with the class.

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